Well this is a very crude analysis for what are UMNO's chances to recapture Selangor should the DUN be dissolved as widely rumoured. Remember its very crude and if time permits I will try and update it further...
Salient points as follows :-
(1) Chinese support should be around 25% UMNO, 75% Opposition. If Chinese support drops to 20% UMNO, then don't bother to contest.
(2)In any case, with Chinese support being at 25%, if UMNO fails to get more than 56% of the Malay vote, UMNO Selangor is finished. At 56% of the Malay vote, and assume that Indian vote is 50-50, then UMNO only gets 12 seats, and Pakatan gets 44 seats. So it will be a complete destruction.
Ketuanan Melayu Agenda
(3)To win Selangor with a majority of 4 seats, UMNO needs to ensure it can get 50% of the Indian votes and deliver 64% of the Malay votes.
(4)If UMNO can deliver 66% of the Malay votes, convince 1 out of 4 Chinaman to support them and get 50% of the Hindu vote, then UMNO can happily get 37 seats compared with F.Riot's 19 seats.
Isu Kuil
Before issue Kuil, PM Najib's support amongst the Indians is around 70%, that means 7 out of 10 say ok to Najib and no to Anwar. If the issue kuil causes Indian support to drop to 40% then the following happens
(5) Even if UMNO can secure 64% of the Malay vote, UMNO will get 23 seats, and F.Riot will get 33 seats
(6) To win the state, UMNO must get 66% of the Malay votes, and then it only can get a 2 seat majority.
AISEHHH MAKKAL SAKTI AGAIN
2008 (ISU KUIL) TO 2009 (GUESS WHAT ISU KUIL AGAIN!)
(7)If the Khalid Gagap can solve the issue Kuil, and the Indians shout "Valge Khalid!", which means that Khalid Gagap gets 70% of the Machan vote then
(a) anything less than 65% Malay support means that Khalid Gagap not only wins, he gets a 22 seat majority!
(b) to win the state UMNO must get more than 68% of the Malay votes, which means that UMNO only gets a 2 seat majority.
My Conclusion
(1) I don't know of anytime UMNO in recent memory can bank on more than 64% of the Malay vote when it is facing PAS
(2) The only time in recent memory when the Malays voted along one single pole was during the 1999 General Election.
(3) It is much easier to not have pissed of the Indians, and enjoy at minimum 60% of the Indian vote. With that 60% of the Indian, UMNO can win the state if can get 60% of the Malay vote.
(4) To rescue the situation, if indeed the DUN Selangor gets dissolved, is to ensure that YB Khairy plays an important role in the election machinery because next to the Prime Minister, only he has openly criticized the Isu Kuil - Isu Lembu demo. Furthermore, he is widely respected by the MIC and can act as a peacemaker. Because of his stand and the Prime Minister stand, there still is a chance to win back some of those that had are still angry...
Salient points as follows :-
(1) Chinese support should be around 25% UMNO, 75% Opposition. If Chinese support drops to 20% UMNO, then don't bother to contest.
(2)In any case, with Chinese support being at 25%, if UMNO fails to get more than 56% of the Malay vote, UMNO Selangor is finished. At 56% of the Malay vote, and assume that Indian vote is 50-50, then UMNO only gets 12 seats, and Pakatan gets 44 seats. So it will be a complete destruction.
Ketuanan Melayu Agenda
(3)To win Selangor with a majority of 4 seats, UMNO needs to ensure it can get 50% of the Indian votes and deliver 64% of the Malay votes.
(4)If UMNO can deliver 66% of the Malay votes, convince 1 out of 4 Chinaman to support them and get 50% of the Hindu vote, then UMNO can happily get 37 seats compared with F.Riot's 19 seats.
Isu Kuil
Before issue Kuil, PM Najib's support amongst the Indians is around 70%, that means 7 out of 10 say ok to Najib and no to Anwar. If the issue kuil causes Indian support to drop to 40% then the following happens
(5) Even if UMNO can secure 64% of the Malay vote, UMNO will get 23 seats, and F.Riot will get 33 seats
(6) To win the state, UMNO must get 66% of the Malay votes, and then it only can get a 2 seat majority.
AISEHHH MAKKAL SAKTI AGAIN
2008 (ISU KUIL) TO 2009 (GUESS WHAT ISU KUIL AGAIN!)
(7)If the Khalid Gagap can solve the issue Kuil, and the Indians shout "Valge Khalid!", which means that Khalid Gagap gets 70% of the Machan vote then
(a) anything less than 65% Malay support means that Khalid Gagap not only wins, he gets a 22 seat majority!
(b) to win the state UMNO must get more than 68% of the Malay votes, which means that UMNO only gets a 2 seat majority.
My Conclusion
(1) I don't know of anytime UMNO in recent memory can bank on more than 64% of the Malay vote when it is facing PAS
(2) The only time in recent memory when the Malays voted along one single pole was during the 1999 General Election.
(3) It is much easier to not have pissed of the Indians, and enjoy at minimum 60% of the Indian vote. With that 60% of the Indian, UMNO can win the state if can get 60% of the Malay vote.
(4) To rescue the situation, if indeed the DUN Selangor gets dissolved, is to ensure that YB Khairy plays an important role in the election machinery because next to the Prime Minister, only he has openly criticized the Isu Kuil - Isu Lembu demo. Furthermore, he is widely respected by the MIC and can act as a peacemaker. Because of his stand and the Prime Minister stand, there still is a chance to win back some of those that had are still angry...
1 comment:
请到“Real Poll 4 Real Malaysia"走走看看 。
只是想单纯地针对国内政治、经济、教育与时事局势做一个最公平的探讨。坚持每一台电脑只能做一次网上投票，这是在尽最大的努力以避开最有可能的舞弊。
没有任何政治背景的部落格投票平台
单单纯纯地让网民投一张票
清清楚楚地显示最新的民意
坦坦荡荡地使议题透明化
也：真真实实地朝向“一人一票”方向走去。
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